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rendered 2026-08-24 14:15 UTC STALE inputs (125h)

WPC · W. P. Carey Inc. 5d old

conviction3
coverage tierT3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE
horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-4%30%
+9%48%
+24%22%
EV +8.40%
why these probabilities: VALUATION BRIDGE — all three legs built forward on the same reproducible chain: DPS run-rate -> dividend yield (the multiple) -> price, plus income received. Yield is used as the multiple because the pack contains NO AFFO per share and no dated AFFO multiple (see evidence_gaps); the dividend record IS in the pack at FACT grade (fmp:/stable/dividends, 8 quarters: 0.875 -> 0.94, i.e. ~4% annualised DPS growth) and trailing DPS 3.70 / price 71.305 = 5.19% starting yield. Consensus anchor: fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=WPC&period=annual, as_of 2026-08-19, FY2026 revenue growth +12.4% and EPS growth +50.2% (n_rev 5, n_eps 2, rev dispersion 2.7%); note the EPS figure is GAAP off a depressed 2.11 base and is not the operative metric for a REIT, so revenue growth and the guided investment trajectory are the proxies I used, both named. BASE — the market's expectation, delivered. FY2026 revenue growth ~12.4% (consensus, dated above), driven by investment volume landing inside the guided $1.5-2.0bn at ~7.5% cap rate and contractual/CPI same-store growth. DPS run-rate advances ~4% to ~3.85 TTM; yield holds at 5.19%; price 3.85/0.0519 = 74.2, i.e. +4.0% price +5.2% income = ~+9%. No multiple change is assumed and none is needed. BULL — growth materially faster than consensus: investment volume at or above the top of the raised $1.5-2.0bn range (management: initial guidance is "a star
not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

not built — visibility score
needs: visibility_score.py

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

not built — credibility
needs: credibility.py

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

kelly not computable — no data

Payout durability does the distribution survive a downturn?

FAIL
DPS trajectorycut
interest cover now2.62x
interest cover at FORWARD rates1.86x
DPS trajectory = cut (cuts in [2023, 2024]); interest coverage now 2.62x < 3.0x; interest coverage at forward rates 1.86x < 2.0x (this is the test a static ratio cannot see)

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

The dividend continues to rise on the current quarterly cadence, so DPS growth of ~4% is a safe input to all three legs
Cost of debt resets only marginally, keeping the acquisition spread intact
Investment volume lands inside or above the raised $1.5-2.0bn guidance at ~7.5% cap rate
Leverage stays inside the mid-to-high 5s target and drifts toward the low end
Rent recapture on lease expirations stays near 100% with low TIs, so internal growth is genuinely contractual
No tenant-credit event large enough to break the rent stream (the bear leg explicitly excludes this)

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)


My probability-weighted expected total return is 8.5% against a street-target-implied 17.4% (consensus target 80, median 78.5, range 73-88, 21 analysts). The disagreement is not about the business — I use consensus FY202
high

The rating distribution is 8 buy / 11 hold / 2 sell — a Hold consensus — yet the mean target of 80 implies +12.2% price upside. Those two are internally inconsistent: a Hold book does not normally carry double-digit impl
medium

The revision tape is unavailable, not neutral. eps_drift and rev_drift both return n_up 0 / n_down 0, breadth 0.0, velocity 0.0 over a 365-day window, median_move_pct null, and outliers empty — no estimate revisions are
high

No options anchor exists. desk_options.json has no chain entry for WPC, so the options_implied probability anchor is null on every bear row and, by the pack's own design note, on every bull row. The strongest available a
medium

Consensus FY2026 EPS growth of +50.2% (n_eps 2) is GAAP EPS off a depressed 2025 base of 2.11, against a trailing dividend of 3.70 — the dividend exceeds GAAP EPS, which is normal for a REIT and meaningless as a payout r
high

I am analyst-aisemi, whose mandate is the AI / semiconductor / data-centre value chain. WPC is a diversified net lease REIT with no disclosed data-centre exposure in this pack — the universe row is "reit / diversified ne
medium

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) weakened

Version history from the research record

archived versions1
archivedhashbytes
2026-08-19T08:32:01c95a74dad3f234,920
One version only — the archive was created today. The diff view fills in on the next re-run.
Rendered from canonical artifacts only (T1) — no terminal database exists. Every figure is read from the system's own files at render time; where an artifact is missing the panel names the dependency rather than showing an empty box. No execution path exists anywhere in this interface (T5), not even a link.