HScreen · calibration

The scorebook was the system right, and was it right for the right reason?

0 resolved of 175 calls

insufficient data (n=0, need ~30 per cell). This is the expected state: the oldest call is one day old and the shortest horizon is 9 months, so the first resolution is due 2027-05-16. An empty scorebook now is correct — the machinery exists and carries proper scoring rules from its first line (Brier and log score, not hit rates), so early history will be scored with the right instrument rather than retrofitted.

Ledger labelling the cuts that become possible once calls resolve

situation_type

income_carry	50
	29
cycle_recovery	25
rerating	22
share_gain	20
capacity_expansion	17
turnaround	7
quality_at_price	4
commodity_cycle	1

theme_tag

foundry-logic	26
	24
semicap-equipment	23
memory	16
hyperscaler	13
staples-dividend	13
energy-dividend	11
passives	8
healthcare-dividend	7
dc-infra	6
utility	5
power-thermal	5
telco-dividend	4
tech-dividend	3
reit	2
trading-house	2
power-semis	2
networking	1
neocloud	1
div-materials	1
div-industrials	1
div-comm-services	1

expected_return_basis

probability_weighted	119
base_only_no_probabilities	32	cannot be scored — predates probability weighting
	24

agent

analyst-aisemi	115
analyst-income	59
selftest-writer-boundary	1

Standing questions

conviction 5 vs 3 — do high-conviction calls actually do better?	insufficient data (n=0, need ~30)
model x coverage — does the producer model change the answer?	insufficient data (n=0, need ~30)
adversary value-add — do broken verdicts predict worse outcomes?	insufficient data (n=0, need ~30)
Ben's overrides — is he right to overrule the system?	insufficient data (n=0, need ~10)
dimension disagreements as predictors	insufficient data (n=0, need ~30)
Kelly switch criterion	insufficient data (n=15, need ~15)

Rendered from canonical artifacts only (T1) — no terminal database exists. Every figure is read from the system's own files at render time; where an artifact is missing the panel names the dependency rather than showing an empty box. No execution path exists anywhere in this interface (T5), not even a link.