HScreen · WEC

WEC · WEC Energy Group, Inc. 5d old

conviction3

coverage tierT3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE

horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-14%23%

+11%55%

+26%22%

EV +8.55%

why these probabilities: Built forward from 111.02 (2026-08-18) with the guided/consensus EPS line, then a multiple, then a price. Dividend is included in each leg at the current annualised 3.81 (0.9525 quarterly, 3.4% on price), which is why the bear leg is not simply the price change. BASE (+11%, 55%): consensus delivered. 2026 EPS growth +6.7% and 2027 +7.1% (fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=WEC&period=annual, as_of 2026-08-19) against company guidance of 5.51-5.61 for 2026 and a guided 7-8% CAGR to 2030 (WEC/WEC_2026Q2.json:3) — consensus sits at the low end of the company guide, which is the normal posture for a Hold-rated regulated utility. Assume ~5.95 EPS on a 2027 view, an unchanged ~20x multiple, giving ~119 plus 3.4% yield: +11%. This is deliberately close to the street target of 119.8 because BASE is defined as what the market expects; the independent view lives in the leg weights. BULL (+26%, 22%): EPS growth of ~10-11% rather than the guided 7-8%, driven by the autumn capital-plan refresh pulling additional very-large-customer capex forward. Evidence: management states potential for additional growth both on the current plan and in the next five years depending on individual customer development (WEC/WEC_2025Q3.json:73); 3.9GW already in the 5-year plan on approved acreage with back-of-envelope headroom on the acreage itself (WEC/WEC_2026Q1.json:10); large C&I guided +5.8% for 2026 on

not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

not built — visibility score
needs: visibility_score.py

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

not built — credibility
needs: credibility.py

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

kelly not computable — no data

Payout durability does the distribution survive a downturn?

FAIL

DPS trajectoryprogressive

interest cover now2.65x

interest cover at FORWARD rates2.27x

interest coverage now 2.65x < 3.0x; FCF <= 0: payout ratio undefined; treat as failing

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

The Very Large Customer tariff is implemented at an allowed ROE within the filed 10.48%-10.98% range
No very-large-customer project in the 3.9GW 5-year-plan pipeline is deferred or cancelled
FY2026 EPS lands within the reaffirmed 5.51-5.61 guidance range and the 7-8% 2026-2030 CAGR is restated at the autumn capital-plan refresh
Incremental capital continues to be funded with 50% equity content, delivered via ATM and employee benefit plans rather than a block sale
Dividend growth continues in the guided 6.5%-7% band with payout inside 65%-70% of earnings
Wisconsin large commercial and industrial electric sales grow at or above the guided +5.8% for 2026

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)

Consensus is Hold — 21 hold, 10 buy, 3 sell, 1 strong sell across 35 analysts — with a consensus target of 119.8 implying ~8% price upside. Our scoring is constructive on growth credibility (6) and management delivery (7	medium
THE REVISION TAPE IS UNAVAILABLE. estimates_query.py returns n_up 0, n_down 0, breadth 0.0, direction flat, median_move_pct null, velocity 0.0 for both EPS and revenue over a 365-day window, and outliers is empty. This i	high
Near-period consensus is tight — 2026 revenue dispersion 1.7%, 2027 5.7% — but the out-years widen sharply to 13.5% (2028) and 12.6% (2029, 2030) on only 3 EPS contributors in 2029-2030. Our bull leg depends precisely on	medium
Management reaffirmed FY2026 EPS of 5.51-5.61 and a 7-8% CAGR to 2030 (WEC/WEC_2026Q2.json:8, WEC/WEC_2026Q2.json:3). Consensus EPS growth is +6.7% for 2026 and +7.1% for 2027 — at or slightly below the low end of the co	medium
The computed tier is T3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE because the depot holds ZERO broker research on WEC. Every score above rests on company transcripts (Class A) plus FMP reported figures. For the dividend-durability question that	high
All four signal desks are unbuilt and no chain entry exists for WEC in desk_options.json. The mandatory cross-check of the fundamental view against options pricing, crowding, trend and factor loadings could not be perfor	high

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) weakened

Version history from the research record

archived versions1

archived	hash	bytes
2026-08-19T08:32:01	87b5bb25eaf3	38,955

One version only — the archive was created today. The diff view fills in on the next re-run.

Rendered from canonical artifacts only (T1) — no terminal database exists. Every figure is read from the system's own files at render time; where an artifact is missing the panel names the dependency rather than showing an empty box. No execution path exists anywhere in this interface (T5), not even a link.