HScreen · T

T · AT&T Inc. 13d old

conviction3

coverage tierT1-FULL

horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-15%22%

+11%55%

+30%23%

EV +9.65%

why these probabilities: All legs off 25.1 (2026-08-18) and defined relative to what the market expects, per the consensus anchor fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=T&period=annual (as_of 2026-08-19T06:53:50Z, 17 revenue / 14 EPS contributors for FY2026). BASE (+11%, 55%): consensus DELIVERED — FY2026 revenue growth ~+3.4% and EPS growth ~+13.6%, FY2027 ~+2.1%/+9.4%. No multiple change: 6.1x EV/EBITDA is mid-range against the 52-week 19.89-29.79 band and there is no reason a consensus-in-line year re-rates a carrier. Return is therefore ~4.4% dividend plus ~6-7% of earnings-driven and buyback-driven price drift, i.e. roughly the street's own implied total return (target 26.69 = +6.3% price, +10.7% with dividend). This leg is deliberately descriptive, not a competing forecast; we have no model, no management access and no channel checks. BULL (+30%, 23%): service revenue growth accelerates to ~5% versus the ~3% street pace while the copper decommissioning margin runway (T/T_2025Q3.json:26, explicitly framed as continuing over several years) drops through, taking FY2027 EPS growth to high-teens versus +9.4% consensus. Mechanism is convergence: bundled penetration rising toward the 70-80% historical analogue management describes (T/T_2025Q4.json:23) on an owned-fiber base peers cannot match (T/T_2025Q4.json:63), with the down-market plans adding volume rather than cannibalising ARPU (T/T_2026Q2.json:16)

not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

not built — visibility score
needs: visibility_score.py

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

not built — credibility
needs: credibility.py

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

kelly not computable — no data

Payout durability does the distribution survive a downturn?

FAIL

DPS trajectorycut

interest cover now3.67x

interest cover at FORWARD rates3.08x

DPS trajectory = cut (cuts in [2022, 2023])

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

The quarterly dividend of $0.2775 is maintained and remains covered by free cash flow through the EchoStar leverage peak
Net leverage peaks near 3.2x after the EchoStar close and is tracking back toward the ~2.5x target, not drifting higher
Mobility service revenue growth holds at or above ~2.5% year over year
Share repurchase pace is maintained at roughly the disclosed run rate toward the $45bn+ 2026-2028 return commitment
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin continues to expand as copper is decommissioned
Business Wireline revenue decline does not steepen beyond the ~9% year-over-year run rate

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)

Our probability-weighted +9.7% and a constructive read on the convergence/cost-out trajectory sit against a consensus rating of Hold from 62 analysts, with 30 holds and 6 sells and only 1 strong buy. The street's own tar	low
THE REVISION TAPE IS UNAVAILABLE. estimates_query.py returns n_up 0, n_down 0, direction flat, breadth 0.0, median_move_pct null and no outliers, with 0 estimate rows in the pack for T. This is not a flat tape — it is an	high
No options-implied probability is available: the pack states there is no chain entry for T and desk_options.json carries ATM-only at one near-dated expiry. The strongest available anchor for both legs is therefore absent	medium
The street target range is 20-30 against a spot of 25.1, i.e. the covering universe spans -20% to +20% on price alone, and the median (28) sits 1.31 above the mean (26.69), implying a left-skewed distribution of targets.	medium
Management commits to $45bn+ of shareholder returns across 2026-2028 and a consistent buyback pace (T/T_2025Q4.json:19, T/T_2026Q1.json:14), yet on the 2026Q2 call states the board may reconsider its authorisation as "an	medium
T is AT&T Inc., a US telecom carrier with theme_tag telco-dividend, scored here by analyst-aisemi whose coverage is the AI/semiconductor/data-centre value chain. The name is outside the coverage definition. Flagged rathe	medium

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) weakened

Version history from the research record

archived versions1

archived	hash	bytes
2026-08-19T08:32:01	e9aa0fb3f331	32,257

One version only — the archive was created today. The diff view fills in on the next re-run.

Rendered from canonical artifacts only (T1) — no terminal database exists. Every figure is read from the system's own files at render time; where an artifact is missing the panel names the dependency rather than showing an empty box. No execution path exists anywhere in this interface (T5), not even a link.