| Management reaffirms the 7-8% long-term EPS CAGR at or near the top end, with the large-load pipeline still being added to | ||
| The contracted large-load book stays at or above ~17 GW by the mid-2030s and is not reduced by cancellation or contract renegotiation | ||
| Residual equity or equity-equivalent need stays at approximately USD 2bn through 2030, with no incremental issuance beyond the disclosed ATM forwards and mandatory convertible | ||
| Georgia PSC and Alabama regulatory outcomes remain constructive — no adverse rate order, no disallowance of large-load capex, and RFP proposals proceed to certification | ||
| The dividend is increased for a 26th consecutive year at the April 2027 board action, keeping the 79-year record intact and the payout walking toward the low 60s | ||
| Wholesale capacity recontracting is realised at a materially higher rate than legacy, in the region of the 2-3x management has described in the market |
Our probability-weighted expected total return is +7.8% against the street's implied +11.33% (consensus target 99.83 plus 3.29% yield). We are 3.5pp LESS constructive than the street mark, while agreeing with the street | medium |
The revision tape is UNAVAILABLE, not flat-by-agreement: estimates_query eps_drift and rev_drift both return n_up 0, n_down 0, breadth 0.0, median_move null, and the universe row for SO shows estimate_rows 0. So the cons | high |
Both options_implied anchors are null — no chain entry for SO in desk_options.json. The pack itself states the strongest available anchor for a dated market view on exactly this question is missing, so the probability ve | high |
Quality 7 and growth 6 against valuation 4: the evidence that makes this a defensible franchise with credible load growth is the same evidence the market has already priced at 21.9x FY26E. The conflict is internal and de | medium |
The rating distribution is 21 Hold, 10 Buy, 3 Sell — a Hold consensus — yet the aggregate target of 99.83 implies +8% price upside and the target range is 79-112, a 42% spread on a regulated utility. Those two are not co | medium |
| archived | hash | bytes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19T08:32:01 | 4f4a571b7cdd | 37,881 |