HScreen · QCOM

QCOM · QUALCOMM Incorporated 5d old

conviction3

coverage tierT1-FULL

horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-21%30%

+23%45%

+55%25%

EV +17.80%

why these probabilities: PRICE BASIS 159.21 USD as of 2026-08-18 (fmp:/stable/profile?symbol=QCOM). VALUATION BRIDGE, used identically on all three legs so the arithmetic is reproducible. Anchor facts: FY2025 revenue USD 44.284bn (fmp:/stable/income-statement?symbol=QCOM, FACT); EV/sales 4.283x and EV/EBITDA 12.707x on the 2025 FY period imply EV USD 189.7bn and EBITDA USD 14.93bn, a 33.7% EBITDA margin (fmp:/stable/key-metrics?symbol=QCOM, EST); equity USD 167.17bn at 159.21/share. Each leg takes consensus revenue forward to FY2028 (the year the market will be pricing off at a 12-month horizon), applies an EBITDA margin, applies a multiple, and holds the EV-to-equity difference constant. I cross-check per-share on the consensus EPS path rather than deriving it, because FY2025 reported EPS of 5.06 sits on net income of USD 5.541bn against operating income of USD 12.355bn - a large below-the-line charge - so a non-GAAP EPS level is not derivable from this pack and is logged in evidence_gaps. BASE (+23%, p=45) IS THE MARKET'S EXPECTATION DELIVERED, NOT MY FORECAST. Consensus annual growth (fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=QCOM&period=annual, as_of 2026-08-19T07:41:42Z, EST): revenue -1.3% FY2026, +4.2% FY2027, +15.1% FY2028; EPS -10.8%, -2.6%, +26.8%. Revenue path 44.28 -> 43.71 -> 45.54 -> 52.42bn. Margin held at the FY2025 33.7% gives FY2028 EBITDA 17.67bn; multiple held at 12.7x gives EV 224.4bn a

not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

not built — visibility score
needs: visibility_score.py

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

not built — credibility
needs: credibility.py

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

ladder (enforced)6.97%

kelly-derived (report-only)0.48%

divergence6.49pp

inputsEV(ann) 17.8% · σ 28.46 · Z

Payout durability does the distribution survive a downturn?

PASS

DPS trajectoryprogressive

interest cover now18.61x

interest cover at FORWARD rates16.12x

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

The broad pricing action taken across end markets shows up in realised gross margin within twelve months, offsetting the memory-cost-driven premium-tier mix loss
Premium-tier mix stabilises rather than continuing to degrade as OEMs select lower or prior-generation chips
Consensus FY2028 EPS growth holds at or above the current +26.8% rather than being revised down toward the FY2026/FY2027 trend
The Samsung relationship remains stable and no top-two handset customer discloses material incremental insourcing of the application processor or modem
The unit mix shift up the tier continues across developing as well as developed regions
The OpEx step-up already reflected in the September-quarter guide does not continue compounding faster than revenue
The dividend continues its annual raise cadence, evidencing that FCF cover is intact through the margin trough

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)

The street is internally inconsistent and I am taking the estimates over the target. 69 covering analysts rate QCOM Hold (1 strongBuy / 29 buy / 34 hold / 5 sell) yet carry a consensus target of 204.24 implying +28.3% fr	high
The revision tape and the forward estimates point in opposite directions and I have not netted them. EPS revisions are 3 down / 0 up, breadth -1.0, median -4.58% over 365 days, while revenue revisions are 3 up / 0 down,	high
Management characterises the premium-tier weakness as a MIX phenomenon - OEMs choosing among QCOM's multiple premium chips and using prior generations in response to the memory cost environment (QCOM/QCOM_2026Q3.json:15)	high
My own base case rests on evidence I have flagged as weak, and I am reporting that rather than smoothing it. The +23% base leg is built on consensus FY2028 revenue +15.1% and EPS +26.8%, but FY2028 carries only 9 EPS con	medium
The tier is computed T1-FULL from 4 broker docs, 8 transcripts and 94 estimate rows, but the 23-query plan surfaced ZERO on-ticker broker chunks - every broker chunk in the pack (27f49a5a00:5, 74d8315956:93, 01769104d1:1	medium
The pack assigns QCOM to the foundry-logic chain node and pools its probability anchors against 2330.TW, 2454.TW, AMD, ARM, AVGO, INTC, MRVL and NVDA. Structurally QCOM's earnings driver is handset ASP, mix and licensing	medium

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) weakened

Version history from the research record

archived versions4

archived	hash	bytes
2026-08-17T14:27:28	3f7d7ccdf95a	39,154
2026-08-17T15:40:00	f042f76d992c	39,227
2026-08-19T08:32:01	516bec5793b9	47,097
2026-08-19T08:51:05	634bd759cd0b	47,438

What changed in the latest version

-	value: 'QUALCOMM Incorporated - US-listed (NASDAQ) fabless wireless semiconductor and licensing company. Three
-	segments: QCT (integrated circuits and system software for handsets, automotive and IoT), QTL (technology
-	licensing on 3G/4G/5G essential IP) and QSI (strategic investments). FY2025 (period ended 2025-09-28) revenue
-	USD 44.284bn, operating income USD 12.355bn, net income USD 5.541bn, reported EPS 5.06 (fmp:/stable/income-statement?symbol=QCOM,
-	FACT). Market cap USD 167.17bn at 159.21/share; EV/EBITDA 12.71x and EV/sales 4.28x on 2025 FY metrics, ROE
-	26.1%, ROIC 13.2%, current ratio 2.82 (fmp:/stable/key-metrics?symbol=QCOM, EST). Quarterly dividend raised
-	to 0.92 from 0.89 with the 2026-06-04 payment, itself raised from 0.85 in 2025 (fmp:/stable/dividends?symbol=QCOM,
-	FACT) - trailing indicated yield ~2.31% on the 159.21 price basis. Scale reference points from the company''s
-	own disclosure: record quarterly revenue of USD 11.7bn with non-GAAP EPS 3.41 in fiscal Q1 2025, of which
-	QCT USD 10.1bn and QTL USD 1.5bn (QCOM/QCOM_2025Q1.json:2). 52-week range 121.99-259.92; the price basis is
+	value: 'QUALCOMM Incorporated - US-listed (NASDAQ) fabless wireless semiconductor and licensing company.
+	Three segments: QCT (integrated circuits and system software for handsets, automotive and IoT), QTL
+	(technology licensing on 3G/4G/5G essential IP) and QSI (strategic investments). FY2025 (period ended
+	2025-09-28) revenue USD 44.284bn, operating income USD 12.355bn, net income USD 5.541bn, reported
…	diff truncated

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