| Organic EPS growth stays at or above the guided +7.5-9.5% currency-neutral range, keeping dividend growth fundable from earnings rather than payout expansion | ||
| Gross margin expansion continues as smoke-free mix scales (H1 2026 +150bp to 67.7%) | ||
| Category share is held (~68 vs competitor 69) rather than eroding to competitors two and three | ||
| Deleveraging to ~2x net debt/EBITDA by end-2026 is achieved without cutting investment or slowing the dividend | ||
| The US flavour-ban and Japan excise drag is transitory — growth trajectory re-establishes within roughly two quarters, as it has in prior flavour-ban markets | ||
| The FY26 dollar EPS guide of $8.36-8.51 is not carried by FX — a currency reversal does not push reported EPS below the currency-neutral trajectory |
Street consensus target 210.5 (median 215, range 182-225) implies +12.2% price / ~15.4% total return, with 17 of 25 at buy and only one sell. My probability-weighted expectation is +9.3% total. I do not disagree with the | high — this is the entire 6.1pp gap in our_vs_street_gap_pct and the reason the name may not clear an ALPHA bar despite scoring well on quality and delivery |
p_bear 22% sits 15.9pp above the node-pooled base rate of 6.1% for a terminal -15% close. Defended in deviation_defence on the starting multiple, the FX component of guided EPS, the named excise/flavour-ban mechanism, an | high — moving p_bear to the anchor would lift the expectation from 9.3% to roughly 14% and flip the sign of the street gap |
estimates_query drift returns n_up 0 / n_down 0 / breadth 0.0 / median_move null over 365 days and no outliers, while FMP simultaneously reports 25 covering analysts with dated 2023-2030 estimates. The tape is missing, n | high — eps_revision_breadth is a scored ALPHA input and it reads 0.0 for infrastructure reasons, not analytical ones; any score derived from it is measuring a data gap |
2026 revenue dispersion is tight at 1.3% (n=10) but 2027 widens to 9.8% (n=11) and 2028 to 5.8% (n=11). The covering universe agrees about the next four quarters and disagrees materially about the year after — precisely | medium — supports a wider scenario spread than the tight 2026 dispersion alone would suggest, and is part of why I do not narrow around the consensus mean |
No options chain entry for PM, so the strongest anchor — a dated daily market price for exactly the drawdown question — is unavailable on both legs. Both bear and bull probabilities rest on pooled staples history with ef | medium — the anchoring control is running at reduced strength; a real chain would likely move p_bear materially in one direction and it cannot be known which |
Reported ROE of -1.135 is negative because book equity is negative, while ROIC is 25.6%. Any screen or factor build reading ROE will classify a high-return franchise as impaired. | medium — no impact on this dossier's scores, but it will corrupt downstream quality/quantitative factor loadings unless PM is flagged |
| archived | hash | bytes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17T10:34:17 | 88661a4acf99 | 39,619 |
| 2026-08-19T05:54:53 | e560c1246fbd | 30,512 |
| - | coverage_tier: T3-DATA-ONLY |
| - | analyst: analyst-income |
| + | coverage_tier: T3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE |
| + | analyst: analyst-aisemi |
| - | provenance: |
| - | producer: analyst-income |
| - | generated: 2026-08-17 |
| - | inputs: |
| - | - evidence_pack PM 2026-08-17T04:21:09Z (build_evidence_pack.py) |
| - | - state-files/PM.json (state_file_build.py 2026-08-16T07:00:23Z) |
| - | - payout_durability.json PM as_of 2026-08-16 |
| - | - dividend_metrics PM as_of 2026-08-16T15:20:44Z |
| - | - estimates_query.py drift/outliers as_of 2026-08-17T04:21:33Z |
| - | scenario_returns_frozen: true |
| … | diff truncated |