HScreen · PEP

PEP · PepsiCo, Inc. 11d old

conviction2

coverage tierT3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE

horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-15%25%

+8%55%

+22%20%

EV +5.05%

why these probabilities: All legs built forward from 140.79 (2026-08-17) and include the 4.20% forward dividend yield on the 1.48 quarterly run-rate. BASE (+8%, 55%) — the market's expectation delivered. Consensus FY2026 revenue +5.9% and EPS +5.4% (fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=PEP&period=annual, period 2026-12-27, as_of 2026-08-17, 17 revenue / 13 EPS contributors, revenue dispersion 1.3%): reported EPS 6.03 -> ~6.36, multiple held at ~22.5-23x -> ~146, +3.7% price +4.2% dividend. 55% weight because dispersion is tight (1.3%) and the algorithm has been delivered within a point for three years. BULL (+22%, 20%) — organic at the top of the 2-4% band with productivity flowing through rather than being reinvested, i.e. EPS growth ~9-10% versus consensus 5.4%: EPS ~6.60 and a re-rating to ~25x on evidence PFNA volume has inflected -> ~165, +17.5% price +4.2% dividend. Named evidence: permissible portfolio "$3 billion and growing almost double digit", PBNA total business growing 9% including energy, lapsed-consumer recruitment through Lays/Doritos/Ruffles and Gatorade multipack value, SKU rationalisation efficiency, international as the largest growth engine. BEAR (-15%, 25%) — a realistic growth disappointment, not a collapse. Organic ~1% (below the 2-4% floor), affordability price rollbacks following the largest US customer, tariff and oil-linked COGS plus the $0.07-$0.09 in-year EPS drag not full

not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

not built — visibility score
needs: visibility_score.py

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

not built — credibility
needs: credibility.py

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

kelly not computable — no data

Payout durability does the distribution survive a downturn?

PASS

DPS trajectoryprogressive

interest cover now12.03x

interest cover at FORWARD rates5.83x

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

North America Foods (PFNA) volume inflects positive as the portfolio transformation and affordability actions land
Productivity offsets tariff and oil-linked COGS so that core operating margin expands, rather than being consumed by price rollbacks
FY2026 organic revenue lands in the 2-4% band, at the higher end
The dividend remains covered and progressive at the 1.48 quarterly run-rate
The $0.07-$0.09 tariff and reinvestment EPS drag does not widen, and the Q4-weighted plan is delivered
The Alani commercial arrangement gross-rate drag on PBNA is transitional rather than structural

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)

My probability-weighted expectation is +5.05% over 12 months against the street's implied +10.55% to the dated 155.64 consensus target (median 155, range 134-183). I am below the street, and not because I disagree with i	high
The revision tape is UNAVAILABLE, not neutral. eps_drift and rev_drift both return n_up 0 / n_down 0 / breadth 0.0 / direction flat / median_move null over a 365-day window, and the outliers function returns an empty lis	high
Both anchor families report options_implied as null — no chain entry for PEP, and on the bull side desk_options.json holds ATM-only at one near-dated expiry. So the strongest available anchor (a dated daily market price	medium
Management describes second-half acceleration, "green shoots in our portfolio transformation" and high confidence in productivity, while the reported margin walk in the same period shows PBNA operating margin down ~90bp	medium
This dossier was produced by analyst-aisemi, whose declared coverage is the AI / semiconductor / data-centre value chain across US, JP, KR, TW, CN, HK. PEP is US Consumer Defensive (Beverages - Non-Alcoholic). The mismat	medium

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) weakened

Version history from the research record

archived versions3

archived	hash	bytes
2026-08-17T10:34:17	1006d8468382	32,886
2026-08-17T15:54:35	85851dd9734d	32,716
2026-08-19T05:54:53	55b33819bbc0	33,424

What changed in the latest version

-	ticker: "PEP"
+	ticker: PEP
-
-	- "evidence pack build_evidence_pack.py 2026-08-17T15:37:31Z"
-	- "state file /Volumes/SSD/Hermes/system/state-files/PEP.json (state_file_build.py 2026-08-17T13:23:17Z)"
-	- "estimates_query.py drift/outliers as_of 2026-08-17T15:38:23Z"
-	- "fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=PEP&period=annual as_of 2026-08-17T15:37:59Z"
-	depot_classes_used: "A,B (own research Class D excluded; prior PEP dossier NOT read — blind re-score)"
-
+	- evidence pack PEP generated 2026-08-17T16:50:00Z by build_evidence_pack.py
+	- /Volumes/SSD/Hermes/system/state-files/PEP.json (state.v1, generated 2026-08-17T13:23:17Z)
+	- estimates_query.py drift/outliers as_of 2026-08-17T16:50:49Z
+	- fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=PEP&period=annual as_of 2026-08-17T16:50:26Z
+	rubric_version: v1
…	diff truncated

Rendered from canonical artifacts only (T1) — no terminal database exists. Every figure is read from the system's own files at render time; where an artifact is missing the panel names the dependency rather than showing an empty box. No execution path exists anywhere in this interface (T5), not even a link.