HScreen

rendered 2026-08-24 14:15 UTC STALE inputs (125h)

O · Realty Income Corporation 5d old

conviction3
coverage tierT3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE
horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-12%25%
+8%55%
+25%20%
EV +6.40%
why these probabilities: All three legs are TOTAL returns from 62.3601 (2026-08-18) over 12 months and include the approximately 5.2% forward dividend yield (0.271 monthly annualised to 3.252, FACT, fmp:/stable/dividends?symbol=O). Legs are defined against what the market expects. BASE (+8% total = price +3% to about 64.2, plus 5.2% dividend): consensus DELIVERED — revenue growth +7.9% FY26 and +7.0% FY27 (fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=O, annual, as_of 2026-08-19, EST), the historical 150-155bp spread achieved on approximately USD 8bn of volume, AFFO per share growth roughly 2-3%, multiple flat, cap rates staying in the same "ZIP code" management has described for two years. This is descriptive: it is what is priced in. I am deliberately NOT building a competing revenue forecast. BULL (+25% total = price +19.8% to about 74.7, plus dividend): growth materially above consensus — AFFO per share growth of roughly 5-6% rather than 2-3%, driven by the Cloud Capital data-centre JV converting the two development assets at stabilisation, industrial development partnerships generating above-market yields, the fund platform scaling the approximately USD 10m 2026 base management fee into a recurring stream, and a lower long end widening realised spread beyond 155bp. That earns a re-rating of roughly 2 multiple turns on AFFO because the growth becomes less capital-markets-dependent. BEAR (-12% total = price
not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

not built — visibility score
needs: visibility_score.py

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

not built — credibility
needs: credibility.py

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

kelly not computable — no data

Payout durability does the distribution survive a downturn?

FAIL
DPS trajectorycut
interest cover now1.42x
interest cover at FORWARD rates1.06x
DPS trajectory = cut (cuts in [2023, 2024]); interest coverage now 1.42x < 3.0x; interest coverage at forward rates 1.06x < 2.0x (this is the test a static ratio cannot see)

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

Realty Income sustains its historical 150-155bp investment spread despite the disclosed refinancing step-up
The monthly dividend is not cut or held flat; the sequence of increases continues
Acquisition cap rates hold in the 7%+ range management has described as steady for two years
The Cloud Capital data-centre JV development assets are acquired at stabilisation on the disclosed timetable and at yields at or above the blended 7.4%
Refinancing cost does not exceed the disclosed approximately 5.3% ten-year US dollar unsecured indication

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)


My probability-weighted total return is +6.4% against a street implied total return of approximately +13.5% (PT 67.52 versus 62.3601 plus a 5.2% dividend). I am 7.1pp below the street. The disagreement is not about the b
high

The covering universe is internally inconsistent: rating distribution is 0 strong buy, 14 buy, 17 hold, 3 sell (consensus Hold), yet the aggregate price target of 67.52 implies +8.3% price plus a 5.2% dividend, i.e. a lo
medium

The revision tape is UNAVAILABLE, not flat-by-observation. estimates_query.py returns eps_drift n_up 0 / n_down 0 / breadth 0.0 / median_move_pct null and rev_drift identically zero over a 365-day window, with no outlier
high

No corroboration or contradiction is available from any signal desk: options_view is null (no chain entry for O; desk_options.json holds ATM-only at one near-dated expiry), and the crowding, technical and factor desks ar
high

Both my legs sit above their computed base rates: p_bear 25% versus node_pooled 17.4% (+7.6pp) and p_bull 20% versus node_pooled 6.6% (+13.4pp), which mechanically means I am holding less weight in the base leg than the
medium

The computed tier is T3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE and the pack contains ZERO sell-side research: all 42 chunks are on-ticker, 30 of them the company's own transcripts. Company transcripts are Class A/FACT but they are also the co
medium

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) weakened

Version history from the research record

archived versions1
archivedhashbytes
2026-08-19T08:32:01561050b4582f37,977
One version only — the archive was created today. The diff view fills in on the next re-run.
Rendered from canonical artifacts only (T1) — no terminal database exists. Every figure is read from the system's own files at render time; where an artifact is missing the panel names the dependency rather than showing an empty box. No execution path exists anywhere in this interface (T5), not even a link.