| The served market is growing mid-to-high-30s and KLA grows close to 2x that, per management's 2026Q4 characterisation | ||
| Customer capex funds the bull leg — 2330.TW 2027 capex at or above the ~76-80bn supplier read | ||
| The memory-pricing headwind stays contained at ~100bp and does not widen | ||
| Process-control competitive position is unbreached — KLA holds or gains share from 6.5x the number two | ||
| Service revenue compounds at 13-15% and is not capex-cyclical, bounding the bear leg | ||
| China WFE export controls do not remove a demand block outright |
Our probability-weighted expected return is +10.7% against a street-implied +17.1% from the 225 median target (44 analysts, consensus Buy, 28 buy / 14 hold / 2 sell). We adopt consensus growth verbatim, so the entire 6.4 | high |
The revision tape is UNAVAILABLE — eps_drift and rev_drift return 0 rows, breadth 0.0, direction flat. So the strongest routine corroboration of estimate direction cannot be checked in either direction for this name. A c | high |
Our p_bear of 22% sits 17.6pp above the interpolated node_pooled base rate (~4.4%) and 22pp above the historical (0.0%) at our -34% magnitude. We hold the position: both anchors have effective_n 5, are flagged noisy, and | high |
The state file's key-metrics block is internally inconsistent with its own income statement: ev_to_sales 29.47 and ev_to_ebitda 69.49 cannot both be reconciled with a 252.18bn market cap against 13.579bn of FY2026 revenu | medium |
Consensus dispersion widens sharply along the curve — 0.6% revenue dispersion at FY2026, 7.5% at FY2027, 12.5% at FY2028, 18.2% at FY2029 — and analyst count thins from 20 to 9 to 4. Our scenarios diverge exactly where t | medium |
None of the four signal desks exist at this phase and desk_options.json holds no reachable chain for KLAC, so the view is UNTESTED against options pricing, positioning, technical structure or factor profile. This is not | medium |
| archived | hash | bytes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19T08:32:01 | 050f301e82ea | 32,490 |