HScreen · DIS

DIS · The Walt Disney Company 2d old

conviction2

coverage tierT2-PARTIAL

horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-18%24%

+10%58%

+31%18%

EV +7.06%

why these probabilities: All three legs bridge growth -> EPS -> multiple -> price off $107.76 (2026-08-22) with FY2025 reported EPS $6.88 as the base, and all include the 1.39% dividend yield ($1.50 DPS) in the total return. Consensus path, dated and period-matched, from fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=DIS&period=annual as_of 2026-08-22T14:50:03Z (22 revenue / 18 EPS estimates): FY26E revenue growth +7.1% and EPS growth +17.1% giving FY26E EPS $8.06; FY27E revenue growth +4.7% and EPS growth +8.4% giving FY27E EPS $8.73. Current multiple is therefore 13.4x FY26E and 12.3x FY27E. BASE (+10%, p 58) — the market's expectation, DELIVERED, and anchored to consensus by construction rather than competed with: FY27E revenue growth ~4.7%, FY27E EPS $8.73, and the 13.4x forward multiple simply HELD as the market rolls onto FY27E. 8.73 x 13.38 = $116.81, +8.4% price, +9.8% total. Note this is BELOW the street's own $128.1 target, which requires 14.7x FY27E — the street is paying for consensus delivery plus a re-rating, and we only pay for the delivery. BULL (+31%, p 18) — growth materially HIGHER than the market expects: FY27E revenue growth ~7% rather than ~4.7% as the bundle raises DTC ARPU and cuts churn, with SVOD operating margin extending from the F3Q26 record 12.9% toward ~17% and Entertainment ex-SVOD margin holding mid-teens. That gives FY27E EPS ~$9.60, ~10% above consensus, and earns a 14.6x multi

not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

not built — visibility score
needs: visibility_score.py

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

not built — credibility
needs: credibility.py

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

kelly not computable — no data

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

The F3Q26 record 12.9% SVOD operating margin is structural, not a timing artefact of low marketing spend and absent film impairments
Entertainment and Sports deliver at or above the mid-point of F4Q guidance, not the lower end JPM's model implies
The bundle roadmap ships on the disclosed schedule — live TV and add-ons on Disney+ by year-end 2026, broader membership ecosystem spring 2027
Advertising revenue across Entertainment and Sports does not decline year-on-year
DTC subscriber growth continues and pricing actions stick
Consensus FY27E EPS of $8.73 is not revised down — the estimate tape is currently FLAT with zero revisions logged in 365 days, so any move is informative
TAIL, NOT A LEG — the Experiences earnings stream stays intact. A drawdown beyond -25% requires this to break, which is why it is logged here rather than weighted in the bear case

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)

Our probability-weighted expectation is +7.14% over 12 months versus a street-implied +20.27% (consensus target $128.1, 64 analysts, 40 buy / 20 hold / 4 sell). We do not dispute consensus earnings — the base leg adopts	high
The revision tape is UNAVAILABLE, not neutral. estimates_query.py returns n_up 0 / n_down 0 / breadth 0.0 / direction flat over 365 days despite 496 estimate rows and 64 covering analysts. Zero logged revisions in a year	high
The company's own two most recent signals point opposite ways. F3Q26 beat with a record 12.9% SVOD operating margin against JPM's 10.5% model and ex-SVOD Entertainment margin of 15.1% versus ~10% prior (3c75ad4fbb:16) —	high
Both covering brokers forecast continued SVOD margin expansion (9387b9640a:46 Citi; 3c75ad4fbb:16 JPM) while Citi separately names DTC subscriber slowdown and limited DTC pricing power as a principal downside risk (9387b	medium
No cross-dimension check was possible. DIS is absent from desk_options.json, desk_positioning.json, desk_technical.json and desk_quant.json, so the system's core design property — a view attackable by something that did	high
MANDATE CONFLICT, flagged rather than resolved silently. analyst-aisemi's coverage is the AI / semiconductor / data-centre value chain across all markets. DIS is Communication Services / Entertainment and sits in none of	high
The evidence pack computes T2-PARTIAL from 3 broker docs; universe_alpha.csv records DIS as T3-UNRESEARCHED with 1 broker doc and a blank latest_broker_date. The pack's tier is used, per instruction, but the two disagree	medium

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) weakened

Version history from the research record

archived versions1

archived	hash	bytes
2026-08-22T16:19:49	627f6bbac77b	39,044

One version only — the archive was created today. The diff view fills in on the next re-run.

Rendered from canonical artifacts only (T1) — no terminal database exists. Every figure is read from the system's own files at render time; where an artifact is missing the panel names the dependency rather than showing an empty box. No execution path exists anywhere in this interface (T5), not even a link.