HScreen · D

D · Dominion Energy, Inc. 13d old

conviction2

coverage tierT3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE

horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-14%30%

+8%50%

+23%20%

EV +4.40%

why these probabilities: All three legs are TOTAL return from $68.84 (2026-08-18) over 12 months and include the $2.67 declared dividend (+3.88%), built forward from a growth rate to EPS to multiple. BASE (50%) = the market's expectation delivered. Consensus 2026 EPS growth +4.9% on FY2025 reported EPS $3.46 gives ~$3.63; the multiple holds at ~19.5-20x (today 19.9x, mid of the 52-week range); price ~$71.3 = +3.6%, plus 3.88% dividend = ~+8%. Source fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=D period 2026-12-31, as_of 2026-08-19. Fifty percent is high but appropriate: revenue is regulated and the load is contracted, so the modal outcome for a rate-base utility one year out genuinely is "the guide, delivered". BULL (20%) = growth materially above the market. Assumes ~9-10% EPS growth versus consensus ~4.9%, on CVOW entering full service with the tariff mark (cumulative ~$500m if policy ran to end-2026) and the PJM transmission reallocation resolving in Dominion's favour, plus ESA conversion out of the 48 GW pipeline supporting an upward capital plan revision and a resumption of dividend growth. ~$3.80 EPS at 21.5x = ~$81.7 = +18.7%, +3.88% = ~+23%. BEAR (30%) = a slower PACE, not a collapse, and bounded by what is contracted. Regulated revenue, the Virginia rate base and the customer discontinuation obligations attached to construction LOAs make a revenue decline implausible, so the bear is flat EPS (~$3.46)

not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

not built — visibility score
needs: visibility_score.py

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

not built — credibility
needs: credibility.py

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

kelly not computable — no data

Payout durability does the distribution survive a downturn?

FAIL

DPS trajectorycut

interest cover now2.18x

interest cover at FORWARD rates1.93x

DPS trajectory = cut (cuts in [2020, 2021]); interest coverage now 2.18x < 3.0x; interest coverage at forward rates 1.93x < 2.0x (this is the test a static ratio cannot see); FCF <= 0: payout ratio undefined; treat as failing

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

CVOW reaches full in-service without a further increase in project cost beyond the existing mark and the $123m unused contingency
Turbine installation completes without extending past July 2027, so no $150-200m per-quarter cost additions accrue
The data-centre pipeline keeps converting: contracted stages hold above 48 GW and construction-LOA gigawatts continue to rise
The $2.67 annual dividend is held and the payout ratio is NOT used as a funding source for the enlarged capital plan
Long-term operating EPS growth guidance (x45Z basis) is reaffirmed, not lowered
Equity issuance stays back-end weighted (about one third 2026-2028) rather than being pulled forward
Virginia earned ROE lag stays confined to the small North Carolina segment rather than appearing in the Virginia composite

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)

Our probability-weighted total return is +4.4% against the street's +6.29% implied total return (target 70.5, 32 analysts, consensus Hold). We are BELOW the street, not above it. The disagreement is about the bear leg: w	high
THE REVISION TAPE IS UNAVAILABLE. estimates_query.py drift returns n_up 0, n_down 0, breadth 0.0, direction flat, median_move_pct null and velocity 0.0 for both EPS and revenue over a 365-day window, and the outliers fun	high
Consensus 2026 revenue dispersion is 10.9% across 7 estimates and 2028 dispersion widens to 14.2% on 8 estimates, with EPS coverage thinning to 4 estimates by 2028 and 1 by 2029. The point estimate we anchor the base cas	medium
Management flagged at FY2025 that prior consensus embedded 10c of 45Z credit against their 7c, accounting for roughly half of a 6c delta on a 2028 basis. Consensus and the company are not on the same accounting basis for	medium
The dividend record is a flat $0.6675 across eight consecutive declarations — durable, and the FY2024 statement was to maintain $2.67 until an industry-aligned payout ratio is reached. But at FY2025 management explicitly	high
No cross-check is possible against any signal desk: options_view is null (no chain entry for D), and crowding, technical and factor desks are not built. Four of the system's independent verification dimensions are silent	medium

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) weakened

Version history from the research record

archived versions1

archived	hash	bytes
2026-08-19T08:32:01	5cad1ed5c457	30,427

One version only — the archive was created today. The diff view fills in on the next re-run.

Rendered from canonical artifacts only (T1) — no terminal database exists. Every figure is read from the system's own files at render time; where an artifact is missing the panel names the dependency rather than showing an empty box. No execution path exists anywhere in this interface (T5), not even a link.