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lineage status · rendered 2026-09-09 02:16 UTC STALE inputs (497h)

CEG · Constellation Energy Corporation 21d old

conviction3
coverage tierT3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE
horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-25%25%
+12%45%
+45%30%
EV +12.65%
why these probabilities: BASE (+12%, p=45%): the market's expectation delivered. Consensus FY2026 revenue +35.3% and EPS +25.2% (fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=CEG&period=annual, as_of 2026-08-19), then +4.1% revenue / +13.1% EPS in FY2027. Delivering that on an unchanged ~23x EV/EBITDA gets roughly the EPS growth net of the multiple drifting down as enhanced earnings fall toward the guided 30-35% of total, plus a ~0.6% dividend yield on 1.706 annualised. That lands near +12%, below the street's own consensus target of 352.73 (+32%) — we do not accept the street's target as our base, because the target embeds the bull PPA pipeline that we hold in the bull leg. BULL (+45%, p=30%): revenue growth materially above the +35.3% consensus, and more importantly EPS above +25.2%, driven by conversion of the remaining PPA pipeline described as active discussions across a diverse customer set (CEG/CEG_2026Q2.json:15) at the premium pricing management says scarce firm CFE commands (CEG/CEG_2025Q2.json:19), plus the USD 0.50 growth-lever range and the buyback, both of which management states are EXCLUDED from the 20% base EPS CAGR (CEG/CEG_2025Q4.json:70). Signing 2-3 GW more at PPA economics re-rates the contracted share of earnings and takes the multiple back toward where the market had it eight months ago at 412.70 — a +54% move that already occurred inside the last 52 weeks, so +45% requires no unpreceden
not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

not built — visibility score
needs: visibility_score.py

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

not built — credibility
needs: credibility.py

Technology supply chain graph-backed context · read-only

not built — supply-chain attributes
needs: ticker not mapped in supply_chain.yaml

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

ladder (enforced)6.75%
kelly-derived (report-only)0.2%
divergence6.55pp
inputsEV(ann) 12.65% · σ 25.86 · Z

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

The remaining nuclear PPA pipeline converts to signed contracts at premium pricing beyond the ~1 GW already executed
Enhanced earnings hold at or above ~40% of total EPS in 2026 and decline only gradually toward the guided 30-35% as base EPS grows, rather than compressing because merchant margins fall
PJM capacity prices do not revert to the pre-reform lows management described
Datacentre load continues to seek grid-connected firm CFE rather than routing to off-grid gas and alternative markets
The base EPS CAGR commitment of 10% rolling forward each year is maintained at guidance updates
The uprate programme proceeds on the disclosed schedule with outage duration as pre-announced

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)


Our probability-weighted expected return is 13.15% against the street's implied 32.0% to the 352.73 consensus target (median 362, range 296-441, 21 covering analysts, 15 buy / 6 hold / 0 sell). We are 18.85pp below the s
high

The revision tape is entirely absent. estimates_query.py drift returns n_up 0, n_down 0, breadth 0.0, median_move null and velocity 0.0 over a 365-day window for both EPS and revenue, while the same pack carries 8-12 est
high

Our p_bear of 25% is 23.6pp above the node_pooled anchor of 1.4% at -25% and 24.8pp above the historical 0.2%, and our p_bull of 30% is ~20pp below the interpolated pooled anchor of ~0.50 at +45%. Both anchors have effec
high

Consensus revenue growth is +35.3% for FY2026 then +4.1% for FY2027 and +5.2% for FY2028, with dispersion rising from 4.9% (FY2025) to 45.3% (FY2026) to 61.8% (FY2027). A one-year 35% step followed by low-single-digit gr
medium

Classified in Utilities / Independent Power Producers, but carries beta 1.118, 23.1x EV/EBITDA, 4.54x EV/sales, ROIC of 4.0%, and a 52-week range spanning 228.63-412.70 — an 80% high-to-low spread. Any factor model or sc
medium

We score quality 8 on non-replicable licensed nuclear capacity, demonstrated pricing power and a 92.3% capacity factor, yet FY2025 ROIC is 4.0% against ROE of 16.0%. A high-moat score alongside single-digit ROIC is a gen
medium

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) weakened

Version history from the research record

archived versions1
archivedhashbytes
2026-08-19T08:55:465a2aefdb461a36,539
One version only — the archive was created today. The diff view fills in on the next re-run.
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