HScreen · ASML

ASML · ASML Holding N.V. 6d old

conviction4 → 3.21 trust-weighted

coverage tierT1-FULL

horizon12 months

Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point

-25%25%

+13%43%

+42%32%

EV +12.78%

why these probabilities: Price basis USD 1844.08, 2026-08-17. All three legs built forward: growth rate → revenue → margin → EPS → multiple → price. BASE (+13%, p=43%) — the market's expectation delivered. Consensus FY2026 revenue +33.7% and EPS +54.0%, FY2027 revenue +27.3% and EPS +37.1% (source_id fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=ASML&period=annual, as_of 2026-08-17T16:23:12Z, grade EST, 26 revenue / 22 EPS contributors FY2026, dispersion 1.7%). Off FY2025 reported EPS of 24.73, +54% gives FY2026 EPS ~38 and a further +37% gives FY2027 EPS ~52. Delivering consensus with NO multiple change from today's ~48x trailing-2025 / ~35x FY2026 EPS produces roughly the +13% that twelve months of forward-roll on an unchanged multiple mechanically yields, and it lands below the street's own +25.0% implied target return because the target assumes multiple persistence into a second year of it. Descriptive, not predictive: this is what is priced. BULL (+42%, p=32%) — FY2027 revenue growth materially above the consensus +27.3%, call it mid-to-high-30s, on named evidence rather than optimism: TSMC FY2027 capex guided up ~40% to USD 76-80bn per equipment-supplier feedback (pickalpha/fundaai/2026-07-08_Preview_TSMC_26Q2_Expect_Another_Beat_and_Raise.md:2, Class B, 2026-07-08); Intel placing purchase reqs with suppliers against a stated ramp and already taking packaging backlog (INTC/INTC_2026Q2.json:24, FACT, 2026-

not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%

Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen

0.50 scored on 1/4 components

horizon0.500

dispersion_tightnessabsent — only 1 broker in unit EUR mn — dispersion undefined

delivery_reliabilityabsent — guidance_vs_delivery returned nothing

tape_stabilityabsent — revision tape EMPTY (0 up, 0 down) — not flat, ABSENT

Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)

guidance_deliveryunavailable

estimates_depth0.200

evidence_depth0.210

composite0.205

Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder

kelly not computable — no data

Payout durability does the distribution survive a downturn?

FAIL

DPS trajectorycut

interest cover nowx

interest cover at FORWARD rates89.18x

DPS trajectory = cut (cuts in [2008, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2020, 2023])

Falsifiers what would prove this wrong

Leading-edge fab capex continues to expand into FY2027, so ASML's tool demand grows rather than plateaus
Announced customer capacity expansion is real wafer capacity, not predominantly capex inflation from a rising cost per wafer
No repeat of the 2024-style push-out: customers do not defer tool deliveries out of the guided year
Value-based pricing holds — Low-NA productivity gains continue to convert into price increases
Export controls do not widen from their current perimeter to materially restrict DUV or service revenue in China
The payer behind the cascade is intact — token spend and model-lab ARR keep growing, so tier-4 capex has an economic basis

Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)

Our probability-weighted expected return is +12.8% against the street's implied +25.0% from a consensus target of 2305.75 (median 2300, range 2000-2623, 45 analysts, 26 buy or strong-buy versus 3 sell). We do not disagre	high
THE REVISION TAPE IS UNAVAILABLE. eps_drift and rev_drift both return n_up=0, n_down=0, breadth=0.0, direction=flat, median_move_pct=null over 365 days, and outliers is empty, despite 607 estimate rows for the ticker and	high
Unresolvable in either direction: there is no reachable option chain for ASML in this system, so the market's own probability distribution for this question cannot be read and the strongest available anchor is absent on	medium
Consensus FY2027 revenue dispersion is 10.5% and FY2028 is 39.1% across 27 and 34 contributors. The covering universe does not agree about precisely the years my bull and bear legs separate on. My scenario spread (-25% t	medium
Internal tension in the company's own disclosure: management repeats the 2030 EUR 44-60bn / 56-60% gross margin frame (ASML/ASML_2025Q4.json:5) and describes a strong pricing runway (ASML/ASML_2026Q2.json:14), while itse	medium
The computed tier T1-FULL rests on document counts (3 broker docs, 8 transcripts, 607 estimate rows), but usable depth is materially thinner: 11 of 83 chunks are on-ticker and 10 of those are ASML's own transcripts, so t	high
The strongest demand evidence in the pack belongs to ASML's CUSTOMERS, not to ASML: TSMC's capex discussion (2330.TW/2330.TW_2026Q2.json:14), Intel's purchase reqs and packaging backlog (INTC/INTC_2026Q2.json:24), Samsun	high

The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) broken

Version history from the research record

archived versions2

archived	hash	bytes
2026-08-17T10:34:17	94953ce4a850	32,549
2026-08-19T05:54:53	bd6d50eb7709	42,362

What changed in the latest version

+	provenance:
+	producer: analyst-aisemi dossier run
+	generated: 2026-08-17
+	inputs:
+	- evidence pack build_evidence_pack.py 2026-08-17T16:22:44Z
+	- state file /Volumes/SSD/Hermes/system/state-files/ASML.json (state_file_build.py 2026-08-17T13:18:11Z)
+	- estimates_query.py drift/outliers 2026-08-17T16:23:39Z
+	- fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=ASML&period=annual 2026-08-17T16:23:12Z
+	rubric: v1
+	price_basis: 1844.08 USD as of 2026-08-17 (fmp:/stable/profile?symbol=ASML)
-	value: 'ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML, Netherlands, USD line) is the sole supplier of EUV lithography
-	systems and the dominant supplier of DUV immersion, plus YieldStar metrology and inspection. FY25
-	metrics: ROE 49.0%, ROIC 35.4%, current ratio 1.26, EV/EBITDA 27.6x, EV/Sales 10.5x. Market cap USD
-	711bn, 43,938 employees. Sells into the capex budgets of 2330.TW, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, INTC and MU.
…	diff truncated

Rendered from canonical artifacts only (T1) — no terminal database exists. Every figure is read from the system's own files at render time; where an artifact is missing the panel names the dependency rather than showing an empty box. No execution path exists anywhere in this interface (T5), not even a link.