ASML · ASML Holding N.V. 60d old
conviction4 → 3.21 trust-weighted
coverage tierT1-FULL
horizon12 months
Return distribution probability-weighted scenarios, never collapsed to a point
EV +12.78%
why these probabilities: Price basis USD 1844.08, 2026-08-17. All three legs built forward: growth rate → revenue → margin → EPS → multiple → price. BASE (+13%, p=43%) — the market's expectation delivered. Consensus FY2026 revenue +33.7% and EPS +54.0%, FY2027 revenue +27.3% and EPS +37.1% (source_id fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=ASML&period=annual, as_of 2026-08-17T16:23:12Z, grade EST, 26 revenue / 22 EPS contributors FY2026, dispersion 1.7%). Off FY2025 reported EPS of 24.73, +54% gives FY2026 EPS ~38 and a further +37% gives FY2027 EPS ~52. Delivering consensus with NO multiple change from today's ~48x trailing-2025 / ~35x FY2026 EPS produces roughly the +13% that twelve months of forward-roll on an unchanged multiple mechanically yields, and it lands below the street's own +25.0% implied target return because the target assumes multiple persistence into a second year of it. Descriptive, not predictive: this is what is priced. BULL (+42%, p=32%) — FY2027 revenue growth materially above the consensus +27.3%, call it mid-to-high-30s, on named evidence rather than optimism: TSMC FY2027 capex guided up ~40% to USD 76-80bn per equipment-supplier feedback (pickalpha/fundaai/2026-07-08_Preview_TSMC_26Q2_Expect_Another_Beat_and_Raise.md:2, Class B, 2026-07-08); Intel placing purchase reqs with suppliers against a stated ramp and already taking packaging backlog (INTC/INTC_2026Q2.json:24, FACT, 2026-
not built — options-implied distribution on the same axis, with the KL number and where the disagreement sits
needs: desk-options implied bands (v1.4 Part 4a) — activates at 60% coverage; currently 33%
Visibility how far ahead this name can be seen
unscorable scored on 0/4 components
horizonabsent — no backlog/contract language found in the pack
dispersion_tightnessabsent — only 1 broker in unit EUR mn — dispersion undefined
delivery_reliabilityabsent — guidance_vs_delivery returned nothing
tape_stabilityabsent — revision tape EMPTY (0 up, 0 down) — not flat, ABSENT
Trust how much weight this name's own record can carry (credibility Z)
guidance_deliveryunavailable
composite0.205
Technology supply chain graph-backed context · read-only
chain / rolesemicap-equipment · capex_supplier
upstream suppliersnone disclosed
downstream customers2330.TW, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, INTC, MU
centrality / systemic importance0.3333
chokepointsnone declared
Evidence refs: ASML->2330.TW, ASML->INTC, ASML->005930.KS, ASML->000660.KS, ASML->MU. Source: policies/supply_chain.yaml v2 — NOT Futu get_industrial_chain_*, which does not exist in this SDK (verified: only get_owner_plate / get_plate_list / get_plate_stock). Our own graph carries dated rationales per edge, which a vendor plate list does not.; generated 2026-10-16T19:17:25.727410+00:00.
Sizing survival-first size (half-Kelly) vs the enforced ladder
kelly not computable — no data
Payout durability does the distribution survive a downturn?
FAILDPS trajectorycut
interest cover nowx
interest cover at FORWARD rates89.18x
DPS trajectory = cut (cuts in [2008, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2020, 2023])
Falsifiers what would prove this wrong
| Leading-edge fab capex continues to expand into FY2027, so ASML's tool demand grows rather than plateaus | | |
| Announced customer capacity expansion is real wafer capacity, not predominantly capex inflation from a rising cost per wafer | | |
| No repeat of the 2024-style push-out: customers do not defer tool deliveries out of the guided year | | |
| Value-based pricing holds — Low-NA productivity gains continue to convert into price increases | | |
| Export controls do not widen from their current perimeter to materially restrict DUV or service revenue in China | | |
| The payer behind the cascade is intact — token spend and model-lab ARR keep growing, so tier-4 capex has an economic basis | | |
Conflicts surfaced, never netted out (T4)
Our probability-weighted expected return is +12.8% against the street's implied +25.0% from a consensus target of 2305.75 (median 2300, range 2000-2623, 45 analysts, 26 buy or strong-buy versus 3 sell). We do not disagre | high |
THE REVISION TAPE IS UNAVAILABLE. eps_drift and rev_drift both return n_up=0, n_down=0, breadth=0.0, direction=flat, median_move_pct=null over 365 days, and outliers is empty, despite 607 estimate rows for the ticker and | high |
Unresolvable in either direction: there is no reachable option chain for ASML in this system, so the market's own probability distribution for this question cannot be read and the strongest available anchor is absent on | medium |
Consensus FY2027 revenue dispersion is 10.5% and FY2028 is 39.1% across 27 and 34 contributors. The covering universe does not agree about precisely the years my bull and bear legs separate on. My scenario spread (-25% t | medium |
Internal tension in the company's own disclosure: management repeats the 2030 EUR 44-60bn / 56-60% gross margin frame (ASML/ASML_2025Q4.json:5) and describes a strong pricing runway (ASML/ASML_2026Q2.json:14), while itse | medium |
The computed tier T1-FULL rests on document counts (3 broker docs, 8 transcripts, 607 estimate rows), but usable depth is materially thinner: 11 of 83 chunks are on-ticker and 10 of those are ASML's own transcripts, so t | high |
The strongest demand evidence in the pack belongs to ASML's CUSTOMERS, not to ASML: TSMC's capex discussion (2330.TW/2330.TW_2026Q2.json:14), Intel's purchase reqs and packaging backlog (INTC/INTC_2026Q2.json:24), Samsun | high |
The case against independent adversary, different model family (P6) broken
Version history from the research record
archived versions2
| archived | hash | bytes |
|---|
| 2026-08-17T10:34:17 | 94953ce4a850 | 32,549 |
| 2026-08-19T05:54:53 | bd6d50eb7709 | 42,362 |
What changed in the latest version
| + | provenance: |
| + | producer: analyst-aisemi dossier run |
| + | generated: 2026-08-17 |
| + | inputs: |
| + | - evidence pack build_evidence_pack.py 2026-08-17T16:22:44Z |
| + | - state file /Volumes/SSD/Hermes/system/state-files/ASML.json (state_file_build.py 2026-08-17T13:18:11Z) |
| + | - estimates_query.py drift/outliers 2026-08-17T16:23:39Z |
| + | - fmp:/stable/analyst-estimates?symbol=ASML&period=annual 2026-08-17T16:23:12Z |
| + | rubric: v1 |
| + | price_basis: 1844.08 USD as of 2026-08-17 (fmp:/stable/profile?symbol=ASML) |
| - | value: 'ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML, Netherlands, USD line) is the sole supplier of EUV lithography |
| - | systems and the dominant supplier of DUV immersion, plus YieldStar metrology and inspection. FY25 |
| - | metrics: ROE 49.0%, ROIC 35.4%, current ratio 1.26, EV/EBITDA 27.6x, EV/Sales 10.5x. Market cap USD |
| - | 711bn, 43,938 employees. Sells into the capex budgets of 2330.TW, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, INTC and MU. |
| … | diff truncated |