| US organic tenant billings growth holds at or above the pace implied by the ~3% 2026 AFFO/share guide, i.e. the densification phase management has described since 2024 is actually converting | ||
| The 400bp AFFO headwind from DISH churn is genuinely non-recurring and no second material carrier churn event follows | ||
| Attributable AFFO per share guidance is maintained or raised from the ~11.08 level | ||
| Leverage stays at or below 5.0x net debt/EBITDA and the investment-grade rating is unchanged, so the rate channel stays a headwind to AFFO rather than a threat to the distribution | ||
| The dividend continues to rise, evidencing that AFFO cover (~11.08 AFFO vs ~7.16 DPS, ~65% payout) is being used to grow the distribution | ||
| The bull leg's multiple re-rating requires lower front-end rates; the thesis does not depend on it for the base case |
Our probability-weighted expectation is +9.4% over 12 months; the street's 209.75 consensus target implies +24.05% total return, with 40 of 50 covering analysts at buy or strong buy and a target range of 188-240. The dis | high |
Consensus 2026 EPS growth is +34.5% while the company's own attributable AFFO per share outlook implies ~3% y/y (AMT/AMT_2026Q2.json:14). Both are correct and they measure different things — GAAP EPS off a depreciation-h | high |
The estimates tape is EMPTY for AMT — eps_drift and rev_drift both return n_up 0, n_down 0, direction flat, median_move_pct null, velocity 0.0, and no outliers, over a 365-day window — on a name with 50 covering analysts | medium |
Three of the four cross-check dimensions cannot be consulted at all: no options chain entry for AMT, no positioning desk, no technical desk. So the options-implied bear anchor is null and there is no market-priced distri | medium |
Tier is T3-PRIMARY-COMPLETE: complete primary data, zero sell-side research. The valuation leg is the one that suffers — "cheap versus own history" is supported by the 52-week range and the AFFO multiple arithmetic, but | medium |
| archived | hash | bytes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19T08:32:01 | a4fbb6f8b1eb | 34,602 |